The latest figures from property data firm Cotality indicate that national property values slipped 0.1 per cent in January, reinforcing expectations that the market is likely to remain largely flat for at least the next six months.
The median property value now sits at around 1 per cent lower than a year ago and still 17.5 per cent below the market peak reached in early 2022. Standalone houses recorded a 0.7 per cent annual decline, while townhouses fell 1.7 per cent and apartments dropped a more pronounced 4.1 per cent. The data suggests that higher-density housing continues to face the greatest price pressure, reflecting both affordability constraints and increased supply.
Regional trends were mixed but generally subdued. Auckland values eased 0.3 per cent in January and were down 1 per cent over the past three months. Wellington recorded smaller declines, while Hamilton and Christchurch remained broadly flat. Some regional centres showed modest gains, with Tauranga and Dunedin posting small monthly increases, and Queenstown standing out with a stronger rise over both the month and the quarter. Even so, these pockets of growth have not been enough to shift the overall market narrative.
The prevailing conditions reflect a balance between supportive and restraining forces. On one hand, lower interest rates have improved borrowing capacity for new buyers and existing mortgage holders. On the other hand, many listings and lingering economic uncertainty are keeping buyers cautious. Employment growth remains soft, and job security has yet to improve enough to generate widespread confidence.
As a result, buyers are not feeling pressure to bid prices higher, while sellers are generally holding firm rather than significantly cutting expectations. This standoff has contributed to the extended period of flat price movement seen through last year and into 2026.
Policy uncertainty is another factor shaping sentiment. With an election approaching, potential changes to housing-related policies are firmly on the radar. Discussions around debt-to-income ratio limits, housing supply initiatives, capital gains tax, and interest deductibility are all being watched closely, particularly by investors who have recently re-entered the market.
Monetary policy expectations have also shifted. Earlier concerns about imminent increases to the official cash rate have softened following weaker labour market data, easing some anxiety among households. While interest rates may still rise later, the timing now appears less immediate, offering short-term reassurance to the housing market.
Looking ahead, house prices are expected to rise only gradually this year. The first half of 2026 is shaping up as a continuation of sideways movement, with any stronger upward momentum likely dependent on a clearer economic recovery and a sustained fall in unemployment. For now, the message to buyers is clear: there is no rush, and patience may remain a valuable asset in the months ahead.
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